SCUT: Puyallup School District's Approach to Student Enrollment Trends and Projections

Within education, precision in enrollment predictions is crucial for effective staffing, budgeting, and infrastructure development. Accurate projections predict student enrollment numbers and impact the shaping of classrooms, program structures, and curricula. Armed with insights into anticipated student numbers, Puyallup School District (PSD) can adeptly tailor offerings to address the evolving needs of our student body. Acknowledging the significance of this effort, PSD is committed to an annual review of community trends, actively fostering an educational environment that not only anticipates but also nurtures a sustainable, competitive edge for our students.

When developing an enrollment projection, PSD looks through the "demographic needs lens" and the "educational needs lens." These lenses help demographers understand and anticipate changes in student enrollment and the corresponding staffing and facility requirements.

During the School Capacity and Utilization Task Force meeting on January 25, Facilities Planning Director Brian Devereux helped the task force members better understand and explore the complex process of projecting student enrollment through the "demographic lens" for facility planning. This process involves six key inputs, categorized into birth data, mobility factors, and student yield data, with enrollment projections made in January. Note that these estimates can be influenced by external factors such as political, social, and environmental events. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 served as an unexpected challenge.

Factors Considered by Puyallup School District:  

• Area Demographics:
  • Population Trends – Current enrollment, birth rates, migration patterns, and other demographic factors
  • Age Distributions - Changes in age distribution 
  • Housing Development - New housing projects
• Historical Data:
  • Enrollment History - identify patterns and trends.
  • Facility Utilization - current utilization of existing facilities is assessed to understand capacity issues
• Economic Trends - Economic downturns can impact enrollment

Examples of the Demographic Charts

Recent Trends in Puyallup School District:  

Puyallup School District experienced a notable increase of over 500 students in the 2022-23 school year, followed by an unexpected decline of 250 enrollments in the 2023-24 school year, particularly in Puyallup Digital Learning (PDL) and Puyallup Parent Partnership Program (P4), due to students returning to the classroom.

Kindergarten enrollment in Puyallup Schools was below projections, reflecting a statewide trend expected to influence overall enrollment for the next 11 years. The combined effect of a smaller Kindergarten cohort and lower-than-expected elementary growth led to a more moderate long-term growth projection for the next four years.

Puyallup School District's commitment to thorough enrollment projections, incorporating demographic and educational lenses, underscores the importance of informed decision-making for the evolving needs of its student population.

Next Steps   

The Board of Directors commissioned the School Capacity and Utilization Task Force to develop and evaluate recommendations to support the interim housing of students in the PreK-12th grade settings of the Puyallup School District until future capital projects are funded and constructed.

With the recent release of enrollment projections for the 2024-2025 school year, the Task Force will transition from an information-gathering phase to a recommendation-making phase. Over the next four months, the group will concentrate on crafting recommendations for the PSD Board of Directors related to maximizing the utilization of existing space, particularly in areas of increasing enrollment where building capacity is challenged or is projected to be challenged in the near future.

As enrollment trends continue to influence the educational landscape, the district remains vigilant in adjusting its strategies to ensure efficient resource allocation and a high-quality learning environment. We extend our gratitude to all task force members for their time and dedication in providing diverse and unique perspectives to support student success.

The task force will meet again on February 8, 2024. Stay updated at http://www.puyallupsd.org/scut.  

For more information on the Capital Budget, check out https://puyallupsd.org/capitalbudget